Champions league Final FC Barcelona Vs Manchester United: My preview for The Offside
Scene #1: How it all starts
As a youth (or a child) you get lot of your affections by infection. You have those you look up to and so you inherit some of their own. That’s how I was Barcalized for example. But that was all shallow till 1992, the season where Barcelona’s dream team performed football symphonies and were deservedly crowned the kings of Europe.
Koeman was the hero of the closing night, Pep Guardiola was my own icon then, and still he is.
Scene #2: The lesson
May 18, 1994, sitting on the couch with some football seniors, and waiting to watch the game of the century between my favorite club and my all time favorite striker. Not a very comfortable situation for sure, but as a teenager you have a license to paint fantasies, so it was sorted out for me by hoping FC Barcelona win by a margin against AC Milan, which drives Marco Van Basten crazy so he decides to move to the Catalan club.
The Van Basten part was no doubt a long shot as it was highly unlikely (looking at it now). But the certainty was Barcelona’s victory. Even in the Italian city there was a belief that the game is destined to upset the Rossoneri. Make no mistake, they had one of the best squads ever known in world football (A team that can make an argument being better than THIS Barcelona), but the absentees where too many and too influential to ignore – that I didn’t really know by then, but I felt “The favorites” vibes showering the Catalans and ringing everywhere.
The match started and my first thought was: “Where the hell is Van Basten?!” I was full of rage cursing the stupid naïve coach. I should have coached Milan so that Van Basten plays! And As usual in such situations, I took actions! I went to the kitchen with my Dictation notebook and on the back I wrote the selection that should have started for Milan. Van Basten and some other players I like were at the top of the list of course. That’s how it should be done, stupid coach!
I didn’t need that long to discover that Milan’s coach was not actually naïve. I mean… as soon as the game started the Italians hammered the Catalans to death and the game ended 4-0 for Milan, though they were the side who should complain they were unfortunate while looking at the scoreboard.
That was the day I discovered the impact a coach can make on any game, which was not obvious for all youth who witnessed Maradona’s era. And that was the day when I became infected by “The favorites” phobia. Say it twice and you Busquet-ize me, as I faint without a trace. And that was a turning point for Barcelona.
Scene #3: Rise of the phoenix
The club won the Liga many times afterward but the magic was gone, regardless of the presence of Rivaldo and co. Managerial chaos, financial collapse … well…Gaspart.
Barcelona needed a change and got it. A new board, coach, and football approach were the signs of new era. Yet, there was a need for a new “chosen one” to do the miracle, thus the arrival of Ronaldinho The Great. And like a phoenix, the club revived out of the ashes and the magic was back! The peak was no doubt, the Champions League title in Paris.
The importance of that title is the fact that it introduced the club to new sectors of football followers, new generations who were not there during the glory days and new destinations where football was not taken seriously then. The internet helped a lot as well and the popularity of the club reached its peak.
Scene #4: The perfectionist’s return
The final in Paris was the reward for the revolutionary approach Pep practiced since day one. Pep is so underrated because it is easy to say:” Well, you have great players!”, but what he did at Barcelona perfected a school in football. His ideas are already making an impact on world football. I can safely say that Pep Guardiola’s development as a coach was even more impressive than Messi’s development as a player. With every season that passes, he gets ten times better.
FC Barcelona approached the game suffering plenty of injuries. They were not the favorites they are now. Manchester players were confident they can catch Barcelona by surprise, and they almost did. This is the title that made Barcelona a strong candidate for “Best team ever”.
Scene #5: Welcome to Wembley!
With three champions league titles won by each club, there is no better place to play a final between Barcelona and Manchester United than Wembley. After all, that’s where Manchester United won the first European title 43 years ago. And that’s where Barcelona won their first champions league in 1992.
All the talks about who is the favorite to win this battle are historically unfounded. In the champions League (and knock out matches in general) its not about the best team, but the team that has enough quality to win. Both clubs are up there. Some details will no doubt have an impact on the game, but it’s all containable.
In one hand, Wembley makes Manchester United feels more at home. And if you take in consideration that Barcelona’s away record is not that impressive, you can make a case that Wembley gives Manchester United an advantage. Yet, the most important factor is the fact that Wembley is relatively a slow field. That’s not what Barcelona players like. But the Catalans dealt with worse already.
In the other hand, Manchester United’s Wembley records are not that impressive either. Another positive factor for Barcelona is the rest the players had after guaranteeing the Liga. It is true that Manchester United rested their players as well, but it’s the Catalans who needed it most considering the shallow squad of exhausted world cup winners. I thought Messi should have played the second half of the last match to keep momentum though. We can only wait and see if resting him for two consecutive matches will make him fresh and hungry enough in the final, or disconnected.
Manchester United starts matches strong and lethal. Barcelona dominates when the players catch the tempo. If I have to draw “The favorites” chart for this match, Manchester United players are extremely dangerous in the first ten minutes (that’s a general trend, not only based on the previous Champions league final in Roma). Barcelona are the favorites of the following 60 minutes where they may demonstrate the selection quality, but as a sandglass watch the game will go for Manchester United favor as time goes by, mainly in the last twenty minutes. The Catalan team has no doubt better selection; the English team has better depth with lot of tactical cards on the bench for Sir Alex to use.
The tactics
I didn’t have enough time to review all the tactical posts published about the match on the net, but what I read so far predict the future based on how the two teams played throughout the season. One thing is almost a certainty, we will not see this:
Regardless, of the result, I will be disappointed if the two coaches met the tactical predictions of the public. Teams don’t have enough time to make lot of tactical changes during the season because there is no time for that. But with the two teams winning their domestic leagues weeks ago, there was enough time to change the tactical drills and get the players used to a new game plan that catch the opponent by surprise. That’s something both teams need.
Manchester United
The predictable lineup:
Van der sar, Rafael, Rio, Vidic, Evra, Valencia, Carrick, Giggs, Park, Rooney, Hernandez
This is the no surprises / go for the tested alternative. But I can see Sir Alex customizing the selection a little. O’Shea may play instead of Rafael to act as a third center back and give Evra more freedom to go forward. For all his good, Park like to cut inside more than Valencia, and in such case Evra will be needed to stretch Barcelona’s defense balancing the counter attack on the two flanks. In the other hand, O’shea ability to play as a third center back where needed, assisting Rio and Vidic in the center is more needed than the offense contribution of the Brazilian right back. After all, it’s highly unlikely that Manchester United will instruct both fullbacks to attack Barcelona. That dictates shuffling the defense line up against a team that masters diagonal passes and runs while having two defenders (especially Ferdinand) fragile against dynamic offense in spaces. Finally, Manchester United counter attacks will be based on the element on surprise. They don’t really need both Valencia and the right fullback to buildup offense on the flank. That’s why I have a hunch O’Shea will be a starter in this final.
In the midfield, there are some doubts Fletcher will play instead of Carrick. I can’t see that happening but there is a possibility that Manchester United’s tactical structure change to 4-3-3 with Giggs Carrick and Fletcher protecting the defense behind Valencia-Rooney-Park. Hernandez may need to wait till the second half or play instead of Valencia with Rooney moving to the flank (Won’t bet on that one). This structure will give Giggs a better chance to do what he master best when he plays in the center: Arriving late to the opponent third and pick a shot around the box or paint an assist.
FC Barcelona
The predictable lineup:
Valdes, Alves, Puyol, Pique, Abidal, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Pedro, Messi, Villa
Again, this is the standard selection. I can’t see a reason why Pep should keep Abidal on the bench. I think he will be very motivated in this match and his presence may even inspire his teammates. If he can’t play the full match, it is better to start him and sub him later rather than benching him till the second half. He was by far our most reliable defender this season and after his comeback he showed that he didn’t allow the tumor to win any battle. Beside, it is true that there is no place for sentiments in the Champions league final, but for every role there is an exception. Having Abidal in the starting lineup is a victory on its own.
Will Pep catch us all by surprise? It is true that he is very loyal to this tactical structure, and sometimes to a suicidal level (as in the first leg against Inter last season). Who can blame him, its working like Nutella. Yet, in the big matches he always pulls a rabbit out of his hat. A tinny rabbit maybe, but it makes a Bugs Bunny difference.
I will not talk about the obvious regarding the way Barcelona plays normally, and you don’t need me to do that. Instead I will get that notebook from the kitchen and show you how some changes may do all the difference in this match. You may not like it, but that’s only because unlike us, you mortals always resist change.
If Pep decided that Abidal can play (And yes, unlike Obama, Abidal really really can!), then he may put Mascherano as a holding midfielder, Play Busquets beside Xavi and use Iniesta as a blade in a 4-4-2 diamond, giving him a Messi-stic freedom to move at will. Iniesta is a very intelligent player who knows how to expose spaces and create it. Busquets is much better center midfielder than people may think and he can create a good partnership with Xavi, there isn’t a lot to adapt to anyways. This Busquets-Xavi-Iniesta can run over any midfield and it will help keeping Messi and Villa closer to Ferdinand and Vidic all the time rather than forcing them to withdraw to the midfield and help in the build up. Alves is the player who normally creates width from the right while the combination of Iniesta/Villa synchronized movement can stretch Manchester’s defense on the left.
Or maybe, we avoid making all these tests and simply play Keita beside Xavi and keep Busquets as a holding midfielder. The most important factor in this trick is giving more tactical freedom to Iniesta. That may prove being THE deciding factor of the game.
And you already know that I will not resist the chance of suggesting the 3-5-2, right? I thought NOT trying that option against Inter was the main reason why we didn’t win the Champions league last season. And I do think this alternative can help in this final as well. This option is not as strange to suggest as the past two seasons. Pep already used an imbedded 3-5-2 at the beginning of the season and the current structure we play shares lots of genetic traits with that.
This option may prove vital if Abidal is not ready to start. Puyol-Pique-Mascherano is a good bet behind Adriano-Busquets-Alves. This option heals the Rooney headache. If Rooney plays behind Hernandez, he will take the assignment of canceling Busquets not only when Manchester United defend, but also when they attack. He will try to tempt Busquets to check him then drag him out of position creating a space for Giggs and Park to expose. His pendulum movement between Barcelona’s defense and holding midfielder can create confusion. A 3-5-2 give the opportunity to hire MAscherano as Rooney’s bodyguard and close the case. In the midfield, it will be easier to check Valencia and Park by having wingbacks and cover than it is through fullbacks acting already as wings with two center backs busy managing their own mess. The 3-5-2 gives more freedom for Adriano and Alves to play offense and stretch Manchester United’s defense while keeping Villa and Messi more central. That’s crucial. We need more 2 on 2 situations between Villa-Messi and Vidic-Ferdinand. This 2-on-2 means more one-on-one for Messi. Sir Alex will no doubt make sure not to let it happen. He will ask one of the midfielders to move back (Fletcher?), or a fullback (O’shea?) to play more central. This means either Rooney, or Valencia will need to work more defensively to cover, doing Barcelona’s defense a favor by limiting the English team’s counterattacking kit.
I can’t tell enough how important it is to keep Messi between Vidic and Ferdinand instead of inviting him to the midfield. Five midfielders in a 3-5-2 (Six midfielders when Mascherano track Rooney in the midfield) ca guarantee quality buildup and dominate possession. Let Messi get the ball as close to Van der sar as possible.
It may also prove important to keep either Pedro or (improbable) Villa on the bench to balance tactical choices for the second half with Manchester United.
How will this scene end?
It depends who you ask. By the end of the day, lot of youth will run to twitter and blog-o-sphere (no need for dictation notebooks anymore) complaining about tactics applied by Pep or the Sir depending on who wins this battle. Lot of new breeds will decide their lifetime favorite club tonight, as the case after every final. There will be sadness and joy all around the place. One thing for sure, this match will leave its mark on each football fan memories script, especially the fans of the two clubs.
For me, I will keep being proud of this team’s performance no matter what. This was not an easy season. Any other team in our shoes would have fainted like a Busquets in a bull fight. Last summer marked a change in the board, which meant a wave of critic against previous board’s economy, and ex-president‘s handwriting. Nothing new about that if you ask veteran Barca fans. This environment left its impact on the preparations of the team and we started the season with a squad too shallow for a Tennis team. All that, after world cup games that swallowed our player’s energy like swimming pool drains.
We are already used to global nitpicks for a while now. This team never wins deservedly (though one need to make a statistical analysis if a team possess the ball 3 times more than the opponent, how many calls should they get compared to defending team). There are dedicated journalists backed by those filled by jealousy to find any mean to damage the image of the club. Admittedly, we helped sometimes. Yet, relatively speaking, there is no doubt that our current players are some of the most respectful and humble athletes you can ever witness both in their personal lives and as football players. Such dedication in attacking this club created lot of inspiring moments in the past years, but there is nothing to compare with what happened this season. We were dragged without a choice to a dirty slump, so chaotic that Shakespeare himself had to come back from the dead to put everyone in place. I will not ramble about this one calling names because we should only talk about wonderful subjects and people today.
If this season was that tough for us casual viewers, one can only imagine how it was for players and coaching staff. Still, we won the Liga, which is the title that takes most of the team’s effort. The ties inside the squad are stronger than ever, especially after Abidal’s miracle and all what the group had to stand for across the season. Maybe, this is exactly what a winning team needs to keep the motivation and fighting spirit, a continuous challenge.
I am confident this team can win this title. That’s not underestimating Manchester United, but respecting our team and its dedication. If we win, that’s an unmatched glory in an era where it’s not as easy to win titles consistently anymore. If we miss this one, next year we’ll have another chance. I won’t be happy, but I will still being proud. Especially that it’s Manchester United we are playing against, a great opponent, not a wannabe.
